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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple formula. It often serves as a type of apology. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic resurgence receives the prize. In practice, it fuels an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or simply the greatest surprise.

Yet the current field is profoundly different. The list of nominees is unusually deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division champions falling away and longtime also-rans rising together. During an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and thrilling season, he's competing with multiple other exceptional coaches.

This is how the projected ballot should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right environment, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of freelancing. It is an offense built solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been capable to spin magic from nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the organization with the level of hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But this is not a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for sustained winning. But Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has mastered the off-field aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his initial public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year setback had the team wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller could have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him just one spot ahead of peers.

Still